Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Obama and the Bittersweet Moment

It was evident that when Barak Obama finished his acceptance speech on election night, it was a bittersweet moment for him.

This is the great moment when you win a campaign. The opponent has conceded. You have made the speech. Tomorrow you have to start the transition. But at that moment you just have your family come out, they play music and you wave at the crowd.

Joe Biden came out hugging his mother. Michele Obama and the two girls arrived along with other members of the families. It should be a moment of great joy.

Yet you could see the pain on Obama’s face. His Grandmother had passed away just one day before. While his acceptance speech spoke of a 106 year old African American woman who had lived to see the day that an African American was elected President, no member of his immediate family, the people that raised him, his grandparents, father and mother, were all gone. No one had survived to see “Barry” in his triumph. Yes Michele and the girls were there, but in his own way – Barak Obama stood alone. Bittersweet.

I too was bittersweet as I watched. I had worked for and supported many African American for political office: Joe Watkins, Alan Keyes and was proud to see America overcome that barrier. Yet the man who made it was of a different political outlook than my friends or me. That makes it bittersweet.

My wife and I were out a political gathering to watch the returns. A peril of working in the political field, you don’t have the luxury of just staying home to watch TV on election night.

But our 12 year old son was watching – the first Presidential election of his life where he was old enough to stay up late to watch the results. I had made sure on the drive home from school that he understood the Electoral College and would know what to look for in the results. When the count topped 270 my cell phone rang, “What now Dad?’ asked our son. He sounded hurt, he likes Sarah Palin and admires John McCain’s war story. He was worried about the troops in Iraq.

“What now?” So I told him. “As Americans and as Christians, Barak Obama will be our President. So we need to pray for him and pray that he will be a good one.”

I’m not a minister so it’s not for me to preach, but it was interesting to see a reverend who quoted Scripture today that said the same thing I told my son. Presidential historian Doug Wead gave his take that Obama would succeed and be re-elected in his post Obama Nation.

I don’t go that far. There are numerous parts of Obama’s agenda and foreign policy that trouble me greatly. My father escaped both the Nazi’s and the Communists in Poland and lived to see a Polish Pope, but not the liberation of Poland. But it was through him that I learned that you can love your country even if you don’t like its government.

But I respect our institutions of term limits (I think they should apply to Congress as well) for Presidents and the non-violent, civil transfer of power that America has championed for over two centuries. I respect the will of the American people. While I know that there will be disagreements and concerns and matters of principle that I will have to stand up for in the future, today I will take my own advice to my son.

I am proud of America for electing an African American, and Barak Obama will be inaugurated on January 20th as my President. I will pray for him.

And I will pray that he will be a good one. We need a good one.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Sarah Palin: Female Teddy Roosevelt?

Is this really why McCain picked Sarah Palin?

In all of the fuss over Sarah Palin – the relationship between Palin and the Media- how the left screams she is unqualified and the swirl of issues around her – the question of why John McCain picked her has not been adequately addressed.

While I don’t claim to be an intimate of John McCain I have been around him quite a bit – both in local Arizona politics and during the 2000 Presidential Primary run. I think that when John McCain met Sarah Palin what he saw was: a female Teddy Roosevelt.

It has been well documented that John McCain’s political hero and role model is Teddy Roosevelt. He has declared such in numerous interviews over the last decade. An interesting piece on TR and the Two Candidates by John Avalon at RealPolitics.com reminds us of the influence of Roosevelt today, by comparing McCain and Barak Obama’s similarities to TR.

Yet the person in this Prezsidential race that most resembles Teddy Roosevelt is Sarah Palin.

Let’s compare them. Both Teddy and Sarah are known as hearty physical people who love the great outdoors. They both made their reputation on taking on the powers-that-be both political and corporate and crusading against corruption. They both have a plain, folksy speaking style that relies a lot on humor and personal charm. They are both known for their signature smiles and signature glasses.
So when John McCain met Sarah Palin he very well may have felt that he was meeting a twenty-first century TR wearing pumps. This would appeal to John McCain not because his admiration for TR but because he knew her nomination would shake things up.

And that is John McCain at his happiest: shaking up the status quo. Whether it was accumulation demerits at the Naval Academy or giving his North Vietnamese captors a single fingered salute while as a POW, McCain enjoys upsetting the apple cart. In a very astute analysis on the Populism Divide, Dick Morris, wites about the different forms of populism: economic and cultural. McCain has been successful at reaching out to economic populists over his career – such as his work with against earmarks and Citizens Against Government Waste.

McCain has not been as successful in cultural populism: striking out against the East Coast Establishment and the Media. Both Teddy Roosevelt and later Ronald Reagan were able to combine these two populist tendencies.

Gov. Palin brought the McCain campaign the cultural populist stamp. Don’t be surprised that it would take an Evangelical Christian like Palin to do so. That is where a lot of the cultural populism resides in this country today, in the 40 percent of Evangelical Christian Americans who do not feel that the media, Wall Street, Hollywood or the “In crowd” in New York and Washington, DC reflect their values. Some call them values voters.

So when John MCain encountered Palin, he knew she was a compliment to his populist message. The fact she was a moose hunter probably was frosting on the cake – sounding similar to Roosevelt’s “Bull Moose” third party. The Evangelical Christian part is not a big departure either. When the Bull Moose Party held their national convention, one of the songs they sung was “Onward Christian Soldiers.”

The race has tightened with one week to go. Most of the constant tracking polls of likely voters have it down to 5 points. That’s still a big hurdle to climb. But even if the McCain ticket does not win, don’t expect Gov. Palin to disappear.

Forty percent of the electorate- who will likely feel very culturally estranged by an Obama Administration, may just turn towards the female TR, who will have more experience by then.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

W. by Oliver Stone Leaves Audience Stone Cold

No matter what you think about the Presidency of George W. Bush, it has not been boring. Oliver Stone in his film “W.” about George W. Bush’s life and Presidency failed to keep our attention.

This surprised me. While I do not share Oliver Stone’s political or worldview, I have respected him as a filmmaker. His movie Wall Street was an interesting look at the financiers who believe in Economic Darwinism. He used innovative camera movement and fast paced editing in his portrayal of serial killers in Natural Born Killers, and amused me with his clever End Zone celebrations in his professional football movie Any Given Sunday. He made you want to keep watching. He entertained.

Normally I would have skipped a theatre viewing of W. Coming out in theatrical release just weeks before a Presidential election the film was clearly intended to influence public thought and media discourse. Stone is a Hollywood director who, to his credit, does not try to hide his left wing views. However, my wife reminded me of Sun Tzu’s advice about “Keeping your friends, close and you enemies closer,” and we decided to see what Mr. Stone was about.

The theatre was filled almost exclusively with men. My wife felt out of place, until just two more women filed in at the last minute. My work on political campaigns has heightened my political senses. I can walk around a neighborhood or precinct and smell within five percentage points if it is liberal, conservative, Democrat or Republican. Don’t laugh…Malcolm Gladwell describes similar such abilities in his book “Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking.” I took one whiff of the movie theatre and knew that my wife and I were surrounded by not just Democrats, but Liberal Democrats.

We were probably the only people in the room who had voted for George W. Bush, let alone having met him. I wondered what the other theatregoers would have thought if they had known that, I had worked for President George Herbert Walker Bush.

Expecting Oliver stone to use his considerable cinematic powers to skin alive the current resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue I was surprised. But not pleasantly. Stone attempted to portray George W., as a man driven by his inability to please or live up to his imposing father, the President. Fair enough. James Brolin was widely praised for his portrayal of George W. but I found Brolin to be inconsistent. There were moments where he hit it dead on: as when he placed his Cowboy Boot shod feet on the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office. However, at many other times, especially the scenes in Texas, it seemed as though he were playing doing an impression of John Travolta in Urban Cowboy rather than George W. Although the hair and makeup people did a good job in making him physically look like Bush.

Actors and Directors need to choose if there are going to try to do an impression of a well-known personality, a parody or their own interpretation. Stone, Brolin and the assembled cast in W. seemed to have wavered in their decision. There was neither drama, nor parody. Richard Dreyfuss as Dick Cheney, Scott Glen as Donald Rumsfeld, actors with presence playing powerful men. Yet there was no gravitas – or humor. I’m not sure what Thandie Newton was trying to do in her depiction of Condoleeza Rice – she looked and sounded as if she were wrapped to tight in her girdle and did not even come close to Condi Rice’s natural grace and confidence. James Cromwell chose to play “Poppy” Bush, the 41st President as James Cromwell, which is a valid choice except that Stone did not ask anyone else in the film to act this way. Jeffrey Wright as Colin Powell is relegated to being one-demensional and looking uncomfortable as he obliquely express his opposition to invading Iraq. When good or great actors, as some members of the W. cast undoubtedly are, get into their role, they start to own or wear the character like a second skin. Only Elizabeth Banks as Laura Bush succeeds at this in W. The others, Glenn, Dreyfuss, comedian Rob Corddry of The Daily Show as Ari Fleisher and he others, seemed to be unable to distance themselves from their dislike of the characters they are playing. Cheney, Rumsfeld et al have been accused of being too self-confident. The actors in W., so dislike these people that they look uncomfortable with themselves.

All of the victorious moments of George W.’s life are glossed over. The 2000 election and the drama of the Florida recount are relegated to a passing reference by W.’s father in a dream sequence. W. defeats a popular incumbent Texas Governor Ann Richards? The campaign is short shrifted as Karl Rove, played by Toby Jones, giving W. a few talking points on a bench in Austin, next thing you know he is Governor. There is considerable time spent on W.’s conversion to Born Again Christianity with the usually reliable Stacy Keach portraying a seemingly confused Pastor Earl Hudd. However, the famous walk at Kennebunkport with Billy Graham is omitted.

One scene did make me chuckle. It shows a Born Again W. in 1988 trying to convince his father to court the Evangelical vote and he explains that Karl Rove has put together a bunch of numbers of why this part of the electorate is so important. The scene made me laugh not because it was humorous on screen, it’s just that by 1988 Vice President Bush was well briefed on the Evangelical vote – and not by Karl Rove, but by and old friend of mine Doug Wead. Wead (see his excellent blog on The Top Ten Most Outrageous Attacks on Sarah Palin) had written an over 100-page white paper on the Evangelical vote for Vice President Bush in 1985. But okay, Stone and his screenwriter wouldn’t have known that.

George W Bush’s Presidency has been transformational. There has been more restructuring of the federal government (Office of Homeland Security, Director of National Intelligence, Patriot Act, $700 Billion bailout of Banks and Wall Street firms, etc) since FDR. How history judges him remains to be seen.

I thought perhaps I was too bored by the movie since I did not see Bush the way Oliver Stone does. But the, after the movie one of the other theatre patrons asked my wife and I if we had seen the movie. We admitted we had. He then said, "I would have rather just sent Oliver Stone my money and not had to watch the movie." He said, "there was no point," and "it was just plain boring."

In his haste to get the film W. out before the November election, Oliver Stone forgot a basic rule of filmmaking: he forgot to entertain the audience.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

The Get-R-Done Coaltion

“Git-R-Done!”

- Larry the Cable Guy

It remains to be seen if Senator McCain’s gambit of suspending his campaign in order to focus on the proposed $700 Billion bailout legislation will work. What is clear is that McCain and his campaign are trying to appeal to a special coalition of the American electorate. A good name for it is the Git-R-Done Coalition.

Fans of the comedian Larry the Cable Guy or the Blue Collar Comedy Tour will recognize the reference. It is the signature catch phrase of the Larry the Cable Guy persona played by comedian Daniel Whitney. Your kids may know him as the voice of “Mater” the Tractor tipping pick tow truck in the animated movie “Cars”.

While the phrase Git-R-Done may be famous on the Blue Collar comedy tour, Git-R-Done Americans are not just Blue Collar, nor are they just White or Southern. Many are small business owners and entrepreneurs. Some are African-American or Hispanic.

Git-R-Done Americans can be Libertarian on many issues - “That’s none of the government’s business!” – but approve of government action in other situations – “Why are all those people still trapped in the New Orleans Super Dome?”

Git-R-Done Americans don’t like long drawn out discussions of public policy, partisan advantage and arcane “branding” or “positioning” politics. A good feel for Git-R-Done Americans is presented in a cell phone TV commercial called “What if Firefighters Ran the World?” It shows the US Capital building filled with firefighters instead of elected officials. The firefighters speedily go through such issues as taxes and clean water. Then they all agree and say “Done.” This is the spirit of Git-R-Done Americans, and in many elections they are the swing vote.

In 1992 Ross Perot declared that he would approach Washington by “getting under the hood and fixing it.” A definite Git-R-Done phrase. In 1994 when Newt Gingrich and the other House Republican leaders with the help of remarkable pollster Frank Luntz announce the Contract with America, Git-R-Done voters responded. Git-R-Done Americans may or may not have agreed with all of the points of the Contract with America, but they agreed with the idea of having a simple clear set of goals.

Because that is the way Git-R-Done Americans approach their lives. They set simple clear goals and try to achieve them. If something breaks they try to fix it. They understand that goals and circumstances may change along the way – but they want to see movement not just rhetoric.

At first, Git-R-Done Americans liked George W. Bush. His “aw shucks”, plain spoken, Texas swagger and CEO approach to the presidency appealed to them. Al Gore’s nebulous and intellectual Global warming approach was unsettling. Gore seemed to like to talk a bout a problem more than fixing it.

So Bush was elected and Git-R-Done Americans were pleased. We were attacked by terrorists? Then go to Afghanistan and get them. There is a threat from Iraq? Then get rid of Saddam Hussein. US Education is poor? Then make the schools accountable. Economy slow? Then cut taxes to stimulate it. Git-R-Done!

But then things slowed down. After many years we were still in Iraq, and until the surge started, things weren’t changing. In fact, many in the media misinterpreted the polls at the time. They felt that there was an anti-war, anti-military, peace movement breaking out and this was impacting Bush’s poll numbers. That may be true among the Move On type voters. But Git-R-Done voters were upset that nothing was changing. We aren’t winning in Iraq? Then send more troops, fire the Generals or the Secretary of Defense, or change the strategy – but if it ain’t working fix it! Yet General Abazaid and Donald Rumsfeld kept asking for more of the same. Don’t just stay where we are Git-R-Done!

Along with this came Hurricane Katrina. People were trapped in the Super Dome. The National Guard was waiting for permission to go in. Americans were in trouble and the government appeared frozen. To heck with FEMA rules and the Governor allowing troops in, Git-R-Done!

Then the Republican Congress wouldn’t make the tax cuts permanent and spent a lot of time on pork barrel, sex scandals and corruption. Bush and the Republicans weren’t Gettin’-R-Done. So Git-R-Done voters set out to fix it and gave the Democrats the majority.

Since Senator Harry Reid and Speaker of the Hose Nancy Pelosi have little to show for their tenure, Congress’s approval ratings are low. Some Democrats thought they were sent there to hike the minimum wage or to end the war in Iraq. They misunderstood. Republicans had become fat, lazy and corrupt. Democrats were sent there to Git-R-Done. So far they have not.

Senator McCain’s “Straight Talk” is a direct appeal to Git-R-Done voters. That’s why his idea of suspending his campaign to work on the economic bailout is a good one. Of course now Democrat leaders are saying a solution is at hand. Before McCain made his move, Democrats were stringing things out – so long as the Economy stayed the focus, Obama’s numbers were going up. But if Congress Git-R-Done then the campaign can move on (small “m” and small “o”) to other things. So it was a win-win for McCain – he either looks like a leader, working on the big problem while Obama tries to debate himself, or action is taken on the economy which means it is likely to be less important 40 days from now.

For now at least, McCain is Getting-R-Done.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

What if Jim Dandy Shrugs?

Jim Dandy to the Rescue
Jim Dandy to the Rescue
Jim Dandy to the Rescue
Go Jim Dandy! Go Jim Dandy!

- Black Oak Arkansas

“The American Century is over”, we’ve been told. “China and India are the future.” Russia is resurgent. The European Union will dominate.

Yet…

Every time there is a major crisis in the world…be it military, humanitarian or economic…everyone waits to see what America will do.

Saddam Hussein’s Iraq invades Kuwait? What will America do? Putin’s Russia invades South Ossetia and then Georgia? The French President goes into action, but who cares? It’s about what America will do. Is there a huge tsunami? It is former American Presidents who globe trot raising funds for the survivors.

And when the world economic markets were all tanking…it wasn’t until the US Secretary of the Treasury announced a massive bailout that the slide was halted…not just on Wall Street, but in Russia, Hong Kong, London, Paris and Singapore…

In all of these crises, often caused by world leaders and governments, there is one cavalry that always has to come to the rescue – the American Taxpayer – Jim Dandy. Jim Dandy has to pay for the troops, (some of whom are his own kids) who secure the Middle East. Jim Dandy has to pay for disaster relief (how many countries have chipped in to help us pay to rebuild New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina? Or South Texas after Hurricane Ike?).

And now Jim Dandy has to not only bail out Wall Street Financiers and sub prime mortgage borrowers who should have know those homes were overpriced, but also smug European functionaries, Russian oligarchs, and Communist Chinese Army Generals who own factories.

In 1957 Ayn Rand’s published her classic novel Atlas Shrugged (there may be an Atlas Shrugged film in the works.). The premise was that tired of all of the abuse they take from society, the world’s entrepreneurs decide to withdraw from society. With out their drive and creativity, society crumbles. This is the image that inspires the title, Atlas, the Giant of Greek Mythology who holds the world on his shoulders, decides to shrug – and the world tumbles.

Today, Jim Dandy, the American Taxpayer is Atlas. How many more times will Jim Dandy come to the rescue – before he shrugs? It seems to me that with each of these crises that day comes closer. And then what?

And there are scenarios on the horizon. Iran is continuing to acquire nuclear weapons and verbally demonize Israel. North Korea has restarted their nuclear program. Pakistan is a potential mess.

Who believes that Al Qaeda or other terrorist groups will not try to test the next American President who ever that may be? Won’t the Chinese and Putin test the new administration as well?

Hedge funds have been marketing derivatives in other realms than just Real Estate. When will those houses of cards come down?

Those in power in Washington and across the globe need to pay attention to Jim Dandy. His patience is wearing thin. Jim Dandy may decide to not come to the rescue. Jim Dandy may just – GO!